Morgan Stanley Raises Price Targets for TSMC and Other AI Semiconductor Stocks
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Morgan Stanley rated Greater China AI semiconductors "attractive," giving TSMC, ACM Research, and Silicon Motion overweight ratings with 21% to 62% upside — while warning that growth may slow after 2027.
Why is TSMC seen as the highest-conviction pick?
Price target NT$3,088, implying about 21% upside from the current NT$2,550, at roughly 22× estimated 2026 P/E.
AI revenue is expected to top 30% of sales by 2026; 2nm capacity is ramping at roughly 70% CAGR.
Gross margin of 60% is called a "floor," not a "ceiling." This means → Morgan Stanley believes TSMC's profitability still has room to rise, rather than having peaked.
How strong are advanced packaging and pricing power?
Global CoWoS demand — a technology that packages multiple chips together — is projected to rise from 689,000 wafers in 2025 to roughly 2.5 million by 2027, nearly 4× in three years.
TSMC's CoWoS capacity could reach 260,000 wafers per month by 2028.
The report expects advanced-node wafer prices to rise 5–10% in 2027. In plain terms = demand so far outstrips supply that TSMC can expand capacity *and* charge more.
Why do ACM Research and Silicon Motion have bigger upside?
ACM Research target is $115, implying about 62% upside from the current $70.8; 2026 EPS growth is forecast at 104%.
This means → ACM rides two tailwinds at once — Chinese fab expansion and the push to localize advanced-process equipment — delivering growth well above the sector average.
Silicon Motion target is $400, implying about 53% upside from $261.9; 2026 EPS growth is projected at 263%, driven directly by the NAND shortage and pricing cycle that AI storage demand is triggering.
Why did Himax get only an "equal-weight"?
Himax (HIMX) received an equal-weight rating with a $17.4 target, about 31% above the current $13.3.
Morgan Stanley views its AI exposure as relatively weak, with less valuation upside than TSMC, ACM, or Silicon Motion.
In plain terms = within semiconductors, the farther a company sits from AI, the more conservative Morgan Stanley's rating.
How long can the boom last?
Morgan Stanley expects AI semiconductor growth to slow starting in 2027.
Major cloud companies' capex growth could drop to around 12% by 2028, well below current levels.
This reflects a core question: today's high growth rests on aggressive cloud spending — once that pace eases, the entire supply chain's growth rate downshifts with it.
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