Nomura, Daiwa CEOs: AI Investment Reversal Is the Biggest Risk for Japanese Stocks
nashnova research
The CEOs of Japan's two largest brokerages both expect the Nikkei 225 to reach 80,000 — but warn that a sudden reversal in AI investment sentiment is the single greatest downside risk to the rally.
How bullish are these two CEOs?
Nomura CEO Kentaro Okuda sees the Nikkei 225 at roughly 75,000 by year-end and breaking 80,000 by the end of 2027. Daiwa CEO Akihiko Ogino is more aggressive — 80,000 this year, then 88,000 by end-2027.
The Nikkei closed Thursday at 69,042. This means → even the more conservative Nomura forecast implies roughly 16% upside over two years.
Both firms posted record profits last fiscal year, powered by a four-year Japanese equity bull run. Their optimism is part analysis, part self-interest.
What scares them the most?
Both named the same risk: a reversal in AI investment enthusiasm. Okuda said directly: "Markets, stock prices and corporate earnings are all being powerfully driven by AI investment. If sentiment shifts, that would be a major risk."
Ogino added that public backlash against AI and data centers is already emerging in the US and elsewhere, which could curb spending in the sector.
In plain terms = Japan's rally is heavily tied to one narrative — "AI demands massive capital expenditure." If that narrative cracks, it is not just AI stocks that reprice — the valuation logic for the entire market comes under review.
Why is sentiment itself a risk?
Ogino's warning goes a layer deeper: "Market participants can drastically change their views in a very short time, triggering violent swings in asset prices."
This means → even if AI's real-economy fundamentals hold steady, a rapid shift in sentiment alone is enough to trigger a sharp drawdown.
In plain terms = the real danger is not "AI stops working" but "everyone suddenly decides AI has stopped working." Market volatility can amplify panic far beyond what the underlying economy warrants.
What about the yen and interest rates?
On the yen, Okuda expects roughly 156 per dollar by year-end, strengthening thereafter as geopolitical tensions ease. Ogino projects about 160 by end-2027.
Ogino attributed the yen's recent rebound from extreme weakness to three factors: coordinated intervention, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's call for BOJ rate hikes, and the BOJ's September rate increase.
He framed rising rates as a "positive development." This reflects a specific judgment: higher rates signal that the economy is strong enough to absorb them. Okuda echoed this, noting that the negative impact of rate increases has been negligible so far.
What other variables are in play?
Okuda flagged the Middle East and Ukraine conflicts — if prolonged, they could push energy prices higher and disrupt supply chains. For Japan, a major energy importer, this is especially acute.
He also noted that overseas investor interest in Japan remains strong, providing sustained capital support for equities.
This means → Japan's bull case rests on a three-link chain: AI narrative holds + foreign capital keeps flowing + rate rises stay manageable. Of those three links, AI sentiment is the most fragile — and both CEOs acknowledged as much.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。