Polysilicon Leader Sets Price Floor at 43,000 Yuan/Ton; Granular Silicon Still Needs to Catch Up
nashnova research
Eight major polysilicon producers set a RMB 43,000/ton minimum at a closed-door Hangzhou meeting. Rod-shaped silicon has just reached the line, but granular silicon averages only RMB 40,300 — roughly RMB 2,700/ton short — leaving the real test ahead: whether actual output cuts can turn a paper floor into a market price.
What exactly did this floor set?
On October 11, Tongwei (通威), GCL-Poly (协鑫) and six other producers agreed: the average tax-inclusive price for polysilicon — both Siemens-process rod silicon and granular silicon — must not fall below RMB 43,000/ton. Anything lower counts as dumping.
Module-level floors were set in parallel: BC modules no lower than RMB 0.86/W, TOPCon modules no lower than RMB 0.79/W.
Export pricing, public procurement, and competitive bidding are all covered. This means → the floor tries to seal every channel companies might use to undercut on price.
Rod silicon vs. granular silicon — which one met the floor first?
Per the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association silicon-branch weekly report (Sept 30), n-type recharge feedstock (rod silicon) averaged RMB 43,000/ton — right at the floor.
N-type granular silicon — a lower-energy-cost polysilicon made in fluidized-bed reactors, slightly less pure than rod silicon — averaged only RMB 40,300/ton, about RMB 2,700/ton below the target. It still needs to rise further.
In plain terms = rod silicon barely passed; granular silicon is still in remedial class. GCL-Poly and other granular-focused producers face the steepest price-lift pressure.
How did prices climb back from the bottom?
On September 23 the silicon branch resumed weekly transaction-price reporting after a nearly two-month pause. Both rod and granular silicon crossed RMB 40,000/ton.
That marked a roughly RMB 10,000/ton rebound from late-July quotes. This reflects the August Shanghai meeting consensus — "no sales below cost" — beginning to feed through into actual deals.
Yet the market remains in a "waiting for real output cuts" phase — the price recovery is driven by expectations, not by actual supply contraction.
Who enforces the rules? How is capacity being cut?
The meeting established a mutual-supervision mechanism: companies are encouraged to report peers that violate anti-dumping rules or disrupt market order.
On the capacity side, a concrete implementation plan was formed: each firm will independently coordinate and actively restrain its own output based on total market demand — a market-oriented adjustment approach.
The silicon branch expects October production cuts to roll out in stages, with month-on-month output potentially falling around 13%, easing the oversupply situation.
The floor is drawn — can it actually hold?
The Hangzhou meeting marks a critical step for the polysilicon industry, moving from consensus to execution.
But the supply-demand imbalance remains severe. This means → verbal commitments to cut output are far from enough; a genuine price recovery requires real capacity exits.
Two things to watch next: how aggressively producers actually execute their cut plans, and whether spot transaction prices consistently validate the floor. In plain terms = the floor's durability shows up on weekly deal slips, not in meeting minutes.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。