Qatar: Partial LNG Supply Could Resume Within Weeks After Hormuz Reopens
nashnova research
Qatar's energy minister Saad Al-Kaabi said some LNG facilities could restart within weeks of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, but Iran's strikes destroyed 17% of capacity — and full recovery will take up to three years, leaving a structural gap in global LNG supply.
How bad is the damage?
Iran struck Ras Laffan Industrial City — the world's largest LNG export hub — destroying roughly 17% of total capacity.
With the Strait of Hormuz nearly sealed, Qatar has halted all LNG production.
This means → one of the world's three largest LNG exporters before the conflict — alongside the U.S. and Australia — currently produces zero.
How long until output recovers?
Al-Kaabi laid out two timelines: damaged GTL facilities — gas-to-liquids plants that convert natural gas into diesel and jet fuel — should be repaired by Q1 2027.
But two damaged LNG liquefaction trains — the core units that cool gas to −162 °C for shipping — may take up to three years to restore.
In plain terms = even if the strait reopens tomorrow, Qatar can only bring back a fraction of its capacity first; full recovery is years away.
Why not build a pipeline around the strait?
Qatar has ruled out building a new pipeline to bypass Hormuz.
Al-Kaabi explained: such a route would pipe gas to a separate receiving terminal for re-liquefaction — effectively duplicating infrastructure already planned under the North Field expansion, at prohibitive cost.
This reflects Qatar's judgment that the blockade is temporary and does not justify tens of billions in redundant infrastructure.
What is Qatar's Plan B?
Qatar is using the start-up of Golden Pass LNG in the U.S. to expand its global LNG trading footprint beyond the Gulf.
Al-Kaabi said: "In the near future, we will be the largest LNG trader in the world, by far."
This means → Qatar's strategy is shifting from "produce at home, export from home" to "trade globally, broker cargoes" — hedging domestic production risk with a trader's reach.
What does this mean for the global LNG market?
QatarEnergy has extended force majeure clauses to early November for some buyers, acknowledging it cannot deliver in the near term.
Al-Kaabi stressed: "We have never defaulted on a single cargo, but this is completely beyond our control."
In plain terms = with liquefaction trains needing up to three years to rebuild, global LNG tightness will persist for years even if geopolitical tensions ease — this is not a problem measured in months.
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