Riyadh Airport Hit Again, Physical Brent Crude Reaches Highest Since 1991
nashnova research
Riyadh's main airport was struck twice in two days, killing 12 and injuring over 300. Dated Brent crude surged to $154 a barrel — a 33-year high — as Strait of Hormuz disruptions push the global oil market toward its tightest supply since 1991.
What happened in Riyadh?
On October 12 (Sunday), an unidentified projectile struck the passenger terminal of King Khalid International Airport, setting it on fire — the second attack in two days.
Saturday's strike killed 12 people and injured over 300, the deadliest single incident on Saudi soil since the start of the US–Iran war.
The Saudi-led Yemen military coalition confirmed Sunday's attack, but neither the projectile's origin nor the scale of damage has been disclosed.
What do back-to-back strikes mean for Saudi Arabia?
International flights from Riyadh have nearly ground to a halt, dealing a direct blow to the capital's commercial activity.
The King Abdullah Financial District declared indefinite remote work; several corporate executives pulled out of a major energy conference scheduled in Riyadh.
This means → the fallout has spread from security to economics — the market is repricing Saudi Arabia's reliability as a regional business hub.
Why did oil prices spike to a record?
Dated Brent — the benchmark for physically delivered crude you can take delivery of right now — broke through $154 a barrel on October 5, the highest since LSEG began tracking it in 1991, surpassing the previous peak set after the US-led strike on Iran in April 2026.
By last Friday, the price had pulled back slightly but still held above $149 a barrel.
In plain terms = the crude oil that buyers can actually pick up *today* has become desperately scarce — and they are paying record premiums to secure it.
What does the spot-futures spread tell us?
The gap between Dated Brent and benchmark Brent futures widened to over $50 last week, another all-time record.
Naomura Naohiro, co-representative of a Tokyo-based risk consultancy, said: "Buyers are piling into Brent because it is the crude they can get their hands on immediately."
This means → the futures market is still betting that supply will eventually recover, but the spot market is already paying an extreme premium for "oil I can't get today" — a rare split in how the two markets are pricing risk.
What is going wrong at the Strait of Hormuz?
Iranian attacks on passing vessels have escalated sharply this month. Some tankers have chosen to switch off their Automatic Identification System — AIS, a transponder that broadcasts a ship's position — and slip through undetected.
HSBC analyst Kim Fustier warns that going dark on AIS is unsustainable — the risk surcharges for transiting contested waters are prohibitively high.
Available tanker capacity has remained depressed since September, tightening freight supply and intensifying the scramble among buyers.
What determines where oil goes from here?
Global crude inventories keep falling. Combined with rising winter heating-oil demand, the futures curve has flipped from its normal contango — where later-dated barrels cost more — into backwardation, where near-term barrels carry a premium.
This reflects an intense hunger for immediate supply — traders would rather overpay for "deliver now" than wait for a future contract to mature.
Brent futures have risen far less than the spot price, suggesting the market still expects Hormuz supply to normalize eventually. But if Iranian attacks on shipping keep escalating, that assumption is the single biggest variable that will decide where oil prices head next.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。