Russia Expands Forex and Gold Purchases by More Than Fivefold
nashnova research
Russia's finance ministry will ramp daily FX-and-gold purchases from RUB 2.5 billion to RUB 12.7 billion — a fivefold-plus jump and the largest monthly budget-rule operation since November 2023 — driven by a surge in oil-and-gas revenue.
How big is this purchase round?
Between October 7 and November 6, total purchases will reach RUB 279.42 billion, averaging RUB 12.7 billion per day.
The previous cycle averaged just RUB 2.5 billion per day — a fivefold-plus increase in one month.
This is the largest single-month budget-rule purchase plan since November 2023.
Why the sudden spike?
The direct driver: October federal oil-and-gas windfall revenue is projected at RUB 289.46 billion, far above the baseline.
After deducting a RUB 10.04 billion September revenue adjustment, net purchases lock in at RUB 279.42 billion.
This means → Russia's budget rule works like an automatic gear: the further oil-and-gas revenue exceeds the baseline, the larger the purchases. This round of buying is essentially high oil prices showing up on the ledger.
What did the central bank do?
The Central Bank of Russia raised its linked daily net FX purchases from RUB 1.92 billion to RUB 12.12 billion in step with the ministry.
In plain terms = the finance ministry sets the total; the central bank executes in the market. Both scaling up in lockstep signals a systematic operation, not an ad-hoc decision.
How much does this matter for gold?
The official announcement labels the purchases as a combined "FX and gold" operation, but does not disclose the share allocated to gold.
This means → how much of the RUB 279.42 billion actually flows into gold cannot be quantified. Markets can confirm Russia is buying, but not how much gold is involved.
This reflects Russia's habitual opacity in reserve operations — the actual push on gold prices remains an open question for now.
What has the buying rhythm looked like this year?
Early in the year Russia was a net seller: daily sales averaged RUB 12.8 billion in January and RUB 11.9 billion in February.
Purchases were suspended from March through April. After resuming in May, daily averages swung repeatedly: May RUB 5.8 bn → June RUB 9.9 bn → July RUB 5.4 bn → August RUB 6.5 bn → September RUB 2.5 bn.
In plain terms = from heavy selling at the start of the year, to on-again-off-again buying through the summer, to a sudden fivefold surge in October — the direction has flipped. Whether it holds depends entirely on whether oil-and-gas revenue stays above the baseline.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。