S&P 500 Earnings Growth Expected to Slow in 2027, with AI Spending as the Key Variable
nashnova research
S&P 500 earnings are set to grow 35% in 2026, the fastest since 2021, but the 2027 consensus already halves that to 15% — AI capital-spending growth dropping from near 100% to 37% is the single biggest drag.
Can 35% earnings growth last?
S&P 500 constituents are on track for 35% full-year earnings growth in 2026, the highest since 2021, lifting the index roughly 12% year-to-date.
Investors are already pricing 2027: IBES data show next-year growth expectations at just 15%, half this year's pace.
This means → this year's high base becomes next year's headwind — the higher the bar, the harder it is to clear.
Walter Todd, CIO of Greenwood Capital, said: "We're questioning the sustainability of these enormous numbers."
AI spending deceleration — the top driver of the slowdown?
Goldman Sachs data: the five largest AI hyperscalers are expected to spend just over $800 billion in capex this year, rising to $1.1 trillion next year.
The critical number is growth rate: near 100% this year, dropping to 37% next year. In plain terms = the money is still flowing, but the acceleration is fading fast.
This means → companies that sell picks and shovels around AI — servers, chips, data centers — will see their revenue growth downshift alongside capex growth.
Has the market already priced this in?
The median forward P/E — the price investors pay per dollar of expected earnings — for AI-infrastructure stocks fell from 32× in April to 22×.
The S&P 500 tech sector's forward P/E dropped from roughly 26× at the start of the year to about 21×; the broader S&P 500 slid from a peak of 23.5× to 19.2×.
This reflects a market that is not entirely unprepared — Goldman strategists note that "skepticism about AI-infrastructure earnings durability is at least partly reflected in pricing."
What other risks are stacking up beyond AI?
Rising interest rates → lower corporate appetite to borrow and expand.
Slowing consumer spending → downstream demand under pressure.
Middle East conflict pushing oil prices higher → cost-side margin squeeze.
Yet all 11 S&P 500 sectors are expected to post earnings growth in 2026 — this expansion is not riding on tech alone.
What should investors watch from here?
Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel, said AI spending "will largely dictate where the stock market goes next year."
Data-center construction could stall due to regulatory or community pushback — an underappreciated uncertainty.
Q3 2027 earnings season will be the key proof point — only then can the market verify whether AI capex actually sustains earnings expectations.
In plain terms = the 15% growth consensus is still just ink on paper; real confirmation is a year away.
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