Samsung and SK Hynix End Buybacks Early, Removing the Only Buyer Support for Korean Stocks
nashnova research
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix finished their combined $40.5 billion share buyback roughly a month ahead of schedule, removing the only net buying force behind KOSPI for the past two months; on the first post-buyback session the index fell through 7,000 as foreigners sold a net $1.9 billion.
How big were these buybacks? Big enough to carry the entire market
The two programs were due to expire in November but finished early — Samsung's effectively ended October 6, SK Hynix's within days after — totaling roughly $40.5 billion.
Goldman Sachs Seoul trading-desk data: in the four weeks to September 22, corporate buybacks absorbed about $27 billion in selling pressure, while retail investors were net sellers of $18 billion and foreigners net sellers of $10 billion.
This means → without these two buybacks, KOSPI had virtually no net buyer over the past two months. The buybacks were not "one source of support" — they were the only source.
What happened the moment buybacks stopped?
On the first post-buyback session (October 7), KOSPI fell 2.0% to 6,803.9, dropping back below 7,000.
Foreigners sold a net $1.9 billion; local institutions sold a net $502 million. SK Hynix fell 2.8%, Samsung fell 1.3%.
The only net buyers were Korean retail investors, taking in roughly $1.9 billion — including $630 million of SK Hynix and $175 million of Samsung.
In plain terms = the second corporate buying stopped, foreigners and institutions flipped to sellers. Only retail was left catching the falling stock.
How lopsided was Samsung's flow picture?
Goldman's one-month flow breakdown for Samsung through October 2: corporate buybacks were net buyers of roughly $8.5 billion — the single largest source of demand.
Over the same period, local institutions bought a net $2.5 billion, retail sold a net $7.5 billion, foreigners sold a net $3.4 billion, and pensions sold a net $300 million.
This means → Samsung's own buyback was more than three times the combined buying from every other participant. The stock's price was, in substance, the company's own creation.
Why is October 8 especially dangerous?
Goldman analyst Heather Oh flagged four events converging on October 8: Q3 earnings guidance, rebalancing of seven semiconductor ETFs with combined assets of roughly ₩19 trillion (rebalancing — the mechanical process where ETFs adjust holdings to match index weights; Samsung was expected to face forced selling due to a weight cap), options expiry, and the first full trading day after Samsung's buyback ended.
Samsung's Q3 numbers then came in below expectations on both lines: revenue ₩195 trillion (consensus ₩201.9 trillion), operating profit ₩107.4 trillion (consensus ₩108.67 trillion).
Goldman's trading desk added that client order flow leaned toward selling throughout September. This reflects institutional money already pulling out before the buyback expired.
Who buys next?
Goldman distilled the outlook into two variables: whether foreigners return to Korean equities, and whether Samsung and SK Hynix announce a new shareholder-return program at their late-October earnings calls.
The bull case rests on a fresh buyback or dividend commitment reigniting confidence. The bear case is blunter — 7,000 was never a real supply-demand clearing price; it was a price manufactured by one buyer, and that buyer has stopped.
KOSPI fell roughly 17% over Q3, among the worst-performing major benchmark indices globally — and that decline happened while corporate buybacks were running at full force. In plain terms = the market dropped this much with a floor under it; the real question is what happens without one.
The broader backdrop is deteriorating too
South Korea's energy minister acknowledged that data-center power-demand forecasts were "indeed overestimated," sending grid-related concept stocks sharply lower.
Global bond yields continue to rise, compressing equity valuations further.
This means → buyback withdrawal is coinciding with fundamental headwinds and tightening global liquidity. KOSPI faces not a single risk but multiple pressures arriving at once — with the cushion already pulled away.
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