Samsung Mobile Division Expected to Post Over 1 Trillion Won Loss in Q3 as Surging Memory Costs Erode Profits
nashnova research
Samsung's phone business is set to lose more than ₩1 trillion again in Q3 — AI demand is draining memory-chip capacity, driving up component costs, while handset prices barely budge. The loss-per-phone trap is deepening.
Samsung is printing record profits — so why is the phone unit bleeding?
Samsung Electronics' overall Q3 operating profit is forecast at roughly ₩110.28 trillion, up 804% year-on-year — but nearly all the gain comes from the chip division (DS).
This means → inside the same company, the chip-making arm is cashing in on AI demand while the phone-selling arm is paying the bill for that very same demand.
In plain terms = AI makes memory chips expensive; the chip division sells them at a fat margin, the phone division buys them at a fat cost — profit gets "eaten" by the upstream sibling.
How big is the phone unit's loss?
Broker estimates vary widely: Yuanta sees a ₩900 billion operating loss, Daishin ₩1.44 trillion, Kiwoom ₩1.75 trillion, and Eugene Investment puts the figure at ₩1.8 trillion — the highest call.
The mean tops ₩1 trillion, yet the spread between high and low is nearly double, signaling the market still cannot pin down where Samsung Mobile's bleeding stops.
Daishin forecasts Q3 shipments at roughly 62 million units, flat year-on-year, with an ASP of $314 — up just 2.95%. This means → volume isn't growing, pricing power is minimal, and costs are surging — margin gets squeezed from both sides.
Why did memory chips get so expensive so fast?
AI servers are consuming massive volumes of HBM — high-bandwidth memory, the ultra-fast chips paired with AI processors — along with server DRAM capacity. That leaves less supply for phones.
Sigmaintell data show consumer-grade 12 GB LPDDR5X prices rose 89% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026; 4 GB LPDDR4X jumped 75%.
In plain terms = AI grabbed the "good capacity" first; phone makers now bid for the leftovers, and prices spike accordingly.
How hard does this hit the low end?
Omdia estimates that by Q3, memory costs inside sub-$100 entry-level handsets could surge as much as 400% versus prior levels.
Samsung leans on ODMs — outside firms that design and build entire phones — for its low-end lineup, while concentrating premium growth on the Galaxy S and Galaxy Z series.
Yet that strategy has not offset the cost pressure. This reflects a problem that runs beyond budget phones — the component bill is swelling across the entire product line.
Why doesn't Samsung just raise prices?
Some researchers note that Samsung is deliberately holding back price increases to protect market share, squeezing the mobile division's margin further.
This means → Samsung has chosen a "defend volume now, settle the P&L later" playbook; the phone unit's losses are, for now, a strategic cost of doing business.
Samsung will release preliminary results in early October 2026. The mobile division's actual loss figure will be the market's key checkpoint against these forecasts.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。