San Francisco Fed: Stablecoin Demand for U.S. Treasuries Could Reach $400 Billion by 2030
nashnova research
A new San Francisco Fed letter projects stablecoin issuers' Treasury holdings could nearly double to roughly $400 billion by end-2030 — a sign that a once-marginal crypto instrument is becoming a structural buyer of U.S. government debt.
How big is $400 billion in context?
Over the past five years, stablecoin issuers added roughly $200 billion in U.S. Treasuries. The San Francisco Fed expects that figure to double again by end-2030.
This means → stablecoin buying is no longer a rounding error — it has already offset more than 40% of China's Treasury sell-off over the same period.
In plain terms = China has been selling Treasuries; stablecoins have been buying them — and the latter has covered nearly half of what the former sold.
Why do stablecoins favor short-term Treasuries?
A stablecoin — a digital token pegged one-to-one to the dollar — must be redeemable on demand, so its reserves need to be highly liquid. Short-dated Treasuries fit that requirement best.
Since 2023, stablecoin issuers have added more short-term Treasuries than Japan — the largest non-U.S. holder of American government debt.
The GENIUS Act, passed in 2025, codified this practice: licensed U.S.-based issuers must back every token one-to-one with short-term Treasuries or equivalent high-quality liquid assets.
Who dominates the market?
As of mid-August 2026, Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) together account for over 80% of total stablecoin market capitalization.
This means → the stablecoin sector's influence on the Treasury market is effectively concentrated in two issuers.
Where does future growth come from?
The San Francisco Fed points to cross-border use cases as the main growth driver — stablecoin usage relative to GDP is highest in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America.
This reflects two core demands in those markets: lower remittance costs and a hedge against local-currency depreciation.
In plain terms = in countries where the local currency is unstable, people use stablecoins as a dollar substitute — and that, in turn, feeds indirect demand for U.S. Treasuries.
How reliable is this projection?
The report explicitly flags uncertainty: growth is highly dependent on the global regulatory trajectory, and tighter rules in key jurisdictions could sharply reduce the runway.
Banks are rolling out new cross-border payment technologies that pose direct competitive pressure — if banks deliver faster, cheaper transfers, stablecoins' cross-border edge may narrow.
The report also underscores proportion: while stablecoins are a notable emerging source of demand, their total holdings remain small relative to the U.S. federal government's overall financing needs.
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