Saudi Aramco CEO: Replenishing Global Crude and Fuel Inventories Could Take Two Years
nashnova research
Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said the world has lost nearly 3 billion barrels of crude supply and drawn down roughly 1 billion barrels from reserves — and even after the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, restocking could take two years, signaling a tight oil market with no near-term relief.
How large is the global crude shortfall?
Since the conflict began, global crude supply has fallen short by nearly 3 billion barrels; roughly 1 billion barrels were released from reserves to cover the gap.
This means → the market is not running on normal output — it is burning through stockpiles to stay supplied.
Nasser put it bluntly: "The entire system is already operating under strain."
Why can't the remaining reserves help?
Nasser noted that the drawdowns so far have come mainly from commercial inventories — working stocks held by companies, not government strategic reserves.
The remaining roughly 6 billion barrels of reserves sound substantial, but he said they are "effectively not available."
In plain terms = there is oil on the books, but it is each country's emergency stash — not something that can be tapped to fill a market gap.
Why would restocking take as long as two years?
Nasser set two preconditions: the Strait of Hormuz must fully reopen, and market confidence must return.
Even then, producers would have to meet ongoing demand and rebuild inventories at the same time — a process he estimated at up to two years.
This means → until the strait reopens, "pressure on both ends of the barrel will keep intensifying" — supply and demand are squeezed simultaneously, and the fundamental case for firm oil prices is unlikely to weaken soon.
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