South Korea's September Exports Expected to Grow for 16th Consecutive Month, Supported by AI Chip Demand
nashnova research
A Reuters poll of 18 economists projects South Korea's September exports up 62.0% year-on-year, marking a 16th consecutive month of growth; semiconductor sales surged 259.4% in the first 20 working days, driven by AI data-center investment.
Why does 62% growth count as a "slowdown"?
September exports are forecast at 62.0% y/y, down from August's 68.7% — but the dip is not about weakening demand.
The culprit is a calendar effect: this year's Chuseok holiday fell in September, cutting working days to roughly 21.5 versus 24 last year.
This means → same factories, same order books — output simply had 2.5 fewer days to ship. Strip the holiday out before reading the trend.
Once holidays are stripped, how strong is real demand?
In the first 20 working days before Chuseok, exports jumped 78.3% y/y — an all-time record.
Semiconductor sales alone surged 259.4%, nearly 3.6 times the year-ago level.
On a per-working-day basis, export growth hit 89.8%. In plain terms = every single working day shipped almost twice as much as the same day a year earlier.
What exactly is the AI investment boom delivering?
NH Investment & Securities economist An Ki-tae said: "As investment in AI hyperscale data centers keeps growing, the semiconductor export boom will continue."
South Korean exports have climbed since June 2025, posting double-digit annual growth every month since last December.
The peak came in June at 70.4% y/y — the strongest in nearly half a century. This reflects global tech firms' capital spending on AI infrastructure converting into Korean chip orders at an unprecedented scale.
Why might the trade surplus hit a record?
September imports are forecast at 21.5% y/y — well below export growth, meaning the gap between earnings and spending is widening.
The median surplus forecast is $38.15 billion, which would top August's $34.79 billion and set a single-month record.
This means → chips are powering the export side while imports grow modestly — the widening scissors push the surplus higher.
What to watch next?
South Korea releases official September trade data on October 1 at 9:00 a.m. (Beijing time 9:00 a.m.).
The key question: whether actual semiconductor exports confirm that the 259.4% pace from the first 20 days held across the full month.
In plain terms = the first 20 days were extraordinary, but the final stretch after Chuseok will determine whether the headline lands at, or even above, consensus.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。