Southbound Funds Net Bought Over HK$800M in AIA, Sold Over HK$500M in Alibaba
nashnova research
On September 29, northbound capital posted a near-zero net buy of just HK$15 million — but the two channels moved in opposite directions: Shanghai-connect net-bought HK$2.3 billion while Shenzhen-connect net-sold HK$2.3 billion, a clear rotation from tech into insurance.
How much did northbound funds actually buy — and why the split?
Total northbound net buying was only HK$15 million, essentially flat.
Under the surface: Stock Connect (Shanghai) net-bought HK$2.314 billion; Stock Connect (Shenzhen) net-sold HK$2.299 billion.
This means → the headline "zero flow" masked a rare divergence — investors on the two channels were betting in opposite directions on the same day.
Buy side: who attracted the most capital?
AIA (01299) led with a net buy of HK$809 million. Jefferies maintains a "buy" rating with a HK$114 target, arguing the Thailand unit is undervalued — it accounts for 15% of group new-business value and 12% of embedded value, with over 90% of sales in protection or fee-based products.
Xiaomi (01810) drew a net buy of HK$383 million. Citi noted the new 18 Pro / Pro Max flagships are priced at RMB 5,999 and 6,999, below rivals yet matching or beating their specs — reinforcing Xiaomi's dual strategy of premiumization and value.
Zhipu (02513) netted HK$162 million; Kingboard Laminates (01888) netted HK$75.5 million, with Citi assigning a "buy / high-risk" rating and a HK$95 target; WuXi Biologics (02269) netted HK$45.8 million — Goldman Sachs cited management saying backlog grew 24% year-on-year to US$25.1 billion.
Sell side: why did money leave Alibaba and the Hang Seng Tech ETF?
CSOP Hang Seng Tech ETF (03033) saw the day's largest net sell at HK$570 million. China Galaxy Securities noted the Fed's September meeting struck a more hawkish tone than expected, breaking the "worst-is-over" narrative and pushing uncertainty into Q4.
Alibaba (09988) was net-sold HK$551 million. BOCI raised its FY2027 and FY2028 capex estimates to roughly RMB 230 billion and 250 billion, while cutting FY2027–2029 adjusted EPS forecasts by 9.6%, 5.6%, and 0.8%. Target price was lowered from HK$195 to HK$166; "buy" rating maintained.
In plain terms = Alibaba is spending more on AI → near-term profits get squeezed → funds exit first, but sell-side still backs the longer-term thesis, so the rating stays.
Why were SMIC and YOFC also sold?
SMIC (00981) was net-sold HK$568 million; Tencent (00700) was net-sold HK$26.7 million.
YOFC (06869) was net-sold HK$226 million. On the same day, fiber-optic peer Hengtong Optic-Electric disclosed a share-placement plan to raise up to RMB 6.636 billion for fiber-preform and specialty-fiber capacity expansion.
This means → the market fears an acceleration of supply-side expansion will pressure pricing, and YOFC, as a direct peer, bore the brunt of that expectation.
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