Soybean Futures Drop to Nearly One-Month Low as Soybeans Excluded from U.S.-China Tariff Negotiations
nashnova research
Chicago soybean futures fell to a near-one-month low of $12.74 per bushel this week, down over 3% — raw soybeans were left off the roughly $30 billion US-China tariff-cut list, triggering a rapid unwind of long positions built on trade-deal hopes.
Why were soybeans suddenly left off the list?
Trump and Xi agreed to launch tariff talks after meeting last week. Beijing then proposed a list of about $30 billion in goods for tariff cuts.
The list covers corn, wheat, and soybean oil — but not soybeans themselves.
This means → Soybeans are one of the largest US agricultural exports to China. Their exclusion blindsided the market. Ruan Wei, a researcher at Norinchukin Research Institute, called it "a surprise to many."
What else is pushing prices down?
The US soybean harvest season has begun, adding seasonal supply pressure on its own.
The USDA's September outlook projects output at 4.54 billion bushels for the year ending August 2027 — up 16 million bushels from last month's forecast, a record.
In plain terms = Two forces are hitting the market at once: the tariff hope evaporated, removing the bull case, while record harvest forecasts pile on supply-side pressure. Speculative longs are closing out fast.
Is China actually buying US soybeans?
Hideki Hattori, chief grain analyst at Nisshin Seifun Group, said Chinese state firms have been purchasing US soybeans since mid-June, with an estimated 23.2 million tonnes bought so far.
Under a deal struck at the US-China summit a year ago, Beijing committed to buying at least 25 million tonnes per year for three years.
This means → China's buying pace is close to the annual pledge. But the market cares less about volume than about whether soybeans make it onto the tariff-cut list — which would lower the actual import cost.
Could soybeans still make it back to the table?
Yan Shanping, a professor of agricultural economics at Doshisha University, said that according to Chinese sources, the reciprocal tariff-cut list has not been finalized. "Soybeans will undoubtedly be part of the discussion," he said.
Trump and Xi plan two more meetings this year. The direction of those talks remains the key variable.
In plain terms = Soybeans are "not yet at the table," not "shut out for good." But until they are formally included, futures lack a hard catalyst for a rebound, and the market is likely to stay on the sidelines.
What are traders watching now?
Hattori noted that investors are taking a wait-and-see approach on other goods on the list as well, because "soybeans are the real core of it all."
This reflects soybeans' unique status in US-China agricultural trade — they are the single largest commodity by volume and a barometer of both sides' negotiating sincerity.
Two near-term markers to watch: the agenda for the two upcoming summits, and further USDA confirmation of record output forecasts.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。