Strait of Hormuz LNG Transit Volume Rises to Post-War High in September
nashnova research
LNG cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz rose to 19–21 shipments in September, the highest monthly count since the U.S.–Iran war began in February; whether the rebound holds through winter hinges on Iran's response and the staying power of U.S. naval escorts.
How much did September transits actually rise?
S&P Global Energy counted 19 LNG cargoes exiting the strait in September — 13 from Qatar, 6 from the UAE.
Kpler, a cargo-tracking firm, put the figure slightly higher at 21 shipments, also well above June's 15.
The two sources differ on the exact number but point the same way: September transits rebounded sharply from June, hitting the highest level since the war broke out in February.
Why does this strait matter so much?
Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz carried roughly one-fifth of the world's crude oil and LNG supply — a single chokepoint for global energy.
This means → any disruption here hits global gas and oil prices directly, especially heading into the winter heating season.
In plain terms = one out of every five tanker-loads of oil and gas passes through this narrow channel — block it, and winter heating fuel gets more expensive worldwide.
What happened to the "vanishing ships"?
Three LNG tankers loaded at Qatar's Ras Laffan export terminal reappeared on tracking systems outside the strait this week.
Al Kharaitiyat vanished inside the strait around Sept 22–23 and resurfaced off India's west coast Sept 29–30; Al Gharrafa disappeared Sept 23–24 and likewise reappeared off India on Sept 30.
A third vessel, Milaha Qatar, managed by Germany's Pronav Ship Management, was last seen in the strait Sept 17–21 and is now discharging cargo at Hazira port in western India.
This reflects a practice the industry calls "dark transit" — ships switch off their AIS transponders (automatic identification system, essentially a vessel's GPS broadcast) to avoid detection while crossing the strait.
Can the rebound survive winter? Two key variables
Analyst Eric Yep (叶锐) of S&P Global Energy says if September's second-half momentum carries into October, monthly transits could recover to roughly 25% of pre-war levels.
But sustainability is uncertain, and it comes down to two variables: ① whether Iran views rising export volumes as an erosion of its control over the strait — and responds with military escalation; ② whether U.S. Navy escort convoys can keep operating given high costs.
This means → with peak winter demand approaching, the stability of Hormuz LNG transits will directly shape the global LNG supply picture — the current rebound is encouraging, but far from secure.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。