Taiwan AI Server Supply Chain Divergence: CCL Leads Gains, PCB Posts First Decline
nashnova research
All ten tracked CCL, PCB and IC-substrate suppliers in Taiwan grew revenue year-on-year through Q3, but CCL doubled while PCB logged its first monthly decline in two years — the same AI spending wave is paying different parts of the chain very differently.
Same AI tailwind — why is CCL surging the hardest?
Copper-clad laminate (CCL — the base material made of copper foil and resin that every circuit board starts from) is the fastest-growing link: EMC's Q1–Q3 revenue rose 103.7% YoY, TUC 99.4%, ITEQ 50.1% — all three have already exceeded their full-year 2025 totals.
This means → demand hasn't just increased in volume; it has jumped a spec tier. AI servers and 800Gbps switches require higher-grade M8/M9 laminates, lifting per-board material value sharply.
Supply is helping too: ITEQ flagged fiberglass-cloth tightness constraining order fulfilment, and analysts expect M8 price hikes in Q4. Rising volumes + rising prices + constrained supply — that triple is the core logic behind CCL's doubling.
Why is PCB cooling off first?
FHt posted a 4.6% YoY revenue decline in September — the only company among the ten to log a single-month drop this year, and the first since 2024. Q3 growth was just 1.6%; its Q1–Q3 total of NT$8.8 bn still trails the 2025 full-year figure of NT$9.64 bn.
In plain terms = PCB (printed circuit board — the "motherboard" that holds components together) sits in the supply-chain midstream. Upstream CCL price hikes raise its input costs; if downstream orders slow, margins get squeezed from both ends.
The segment is splitting internally: GCE grew 69.1% YoY in Q1–Q3 and approved NT$7.9 bn in capex; Tripod grew 40.6%, driven by server and memory-module orders. This reflects high concentration in AI orders — makers that locked in core projects keep running; those that didn't feel the tide going out first.
What is holding up IC-substrate pricing?
The three IC-substrate makers — the layer connecting chip to board — grew 33%–65% YoY: Unimicron +37.7%, NYPCB +41.8%, Kinsus +33.6%.
The keyword is ABF (a high-end substrate material that AI chip packaging almost universally requires). Tight supply gives makers pricing power. Unimicron plans to expand ABF capacity 30%–40% by 2027 and has begun shipping CPO (co-packaged optics — integrating optical communication directly into chip packaging) substrates.
This means → IC-substrate growth isn't as "explosive" as CCL's, but margin improvement is more certain: price hikes + better yields + a product mix tilting toward AI — all three drivers are active at once.
How long can the supply squeeze last before new capacity arrives?
EMC targets 9.45 million sheets by end-2027, rising to 11.25 million by 2028; Unimicron's 30%–40% ABF expansion is also pegged to 2027. In other words, major new capacity won't hit the market until H2 2027 at the earliest.
In plain terms = from now through mid-2027, high-end CCL and ABF substrates will likely stay undersupplied, and makers retain pricing leverage. But once new capacity comes online in bulk, the supply-demand balance could flip quickly.
Kinsus flagged scarce industrial land as a constraint on expansion; ITEQ is counting on Nvidia's M9 material certification and new overseas capacity. This reflects that scaling up isn't just a matter of intent — land, certification and overseas construction timelines are all variables, and the 2027 ramp itself carries uncertainty.
What does this divergence mean for investors?
Short term, watch the spec upgrade: M8 price hikes and M9 certification are the most direct catalysts over the next two quarters; the clearest beneficiaries sit in CCL (EMC, TUC, ITEQ).
Medium term, watch capacity positioning: whoever locks in customers and certifications before the 2027 capacity wave can convert a "tight-supply premium" into lasting share — Unimicron's CPO shipments and EMC's expansion pace are the key tracking points.
This means → within the same AI supply chain, "up" and "down" are already happening simultaneously. Picking the right link matters more than betting on the right direction: CCL and ABF substrates remain in a volume-and-price sweet spot, while PCB midstream requires case-by-case screening to find who is truly tied to core AI programmes.
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