U.S. Bull Market Marks Fourth Anniversary — Historical Data Shows an Average 12% Gain in Year Five
nashnova research
The S&P 500 has rallied more than 115% from its October 2022 bear-market low and hit fresh highs this week. Next Monday it enters year five — historically, bulls that last four years average another 12% gain, but with an average peak drawdown of 14% along the way.
How far has this bull run?
On October 12, 2022, the S&P 500 closed at its bear-market low of 3,577.03. Four years later the index has more than doubled, setting a new all-time high this week.
Next Monday the bull market officially enters year five — only the seventh time since 1957 that a bull has run four consecutive years, per Truist Wealth data.
This means → a bull that survives four years is already rare; this is just the seventh occurrence on record.
What does history say about year five?
Truist Wealth's data: bulls that reach year four have averaged a 12% return in year five, with a median gain of 15%.
In plain terms = once a bull clears the four-year mark, the odds still favor further upside — most of the prior six kept climbing.
Chief market strategist Keith Lerner cites three pillars: ongoing economic growth, resilient corporate earnings, and a meaningful valuation reset.
Can earnings hold up?
Corporate profits grew sharply in the first two quarters of 2026. Analysts tracked by FactSet expect S&P 500 EPS growth of nearly 30% year-over-year in Q3.
If realized, that would mark three straight quarters of 25%-plus earnings growth.
This means → earnings are the bull market's hardest card to play; whether Q3 reports validate that pace will directly shape market confidence.
How big is the drawdown risk?
Historically, year-five bulls see an average peak-to-trough drawdown of 14% and a median of 11% — gains come with bumps.
Lerner notes that bulls tend to produce their strongest returns early and late, with more muted gains in between — but you only know where you are in the cycle after the fact.
In plain terms = no one can answer "is this the middle or the end?" in real time; that clarity comes only in hindsight.
Where is the pressure coming from?
The market faces three simultaneous headwinds: rising bond yields, higher energy prices, and cracks in the AI trade.
The Q3 earnings season will be a critical test — if profit growth disappoints, the case for an extended bull weakens.
This reflects the core tension of year five: historical momentum points up, but today's variables are more numerous and more complex than in prior cycles.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。