U.S. September CPI Preview: Energy Lifts Headline, Core Pressures Ease, Fed Likely to Hold Steady in October
nashnova research
Barclays and Morgan Stanley both forecast September headline CPI jumping to roughly 3.7% year-on-year as gasoline surged over 9% month-on-month, while core CPI eased to 0.24% m/m — giving the Fed room to stand pat in October and decide in December.
Why is headline inflation spiking?
One word: oil. Barclays forecasts September energy prices up 5.05% m/m, with gasoline alone surging 9.23% m/m and 34.8% y/y.
This means → headline CPI is being dragged higher by a single category. Barclays projects 0.58% m/m and 3.7% y/y; Morgan Stanley sees it slightly higher at 3.69% y/y and 0.62% m/m.
Morgan Stanley flags ongoing Middle East tensions as the key driver, noting fuel-price pressure will spill over into airfares and shipping costs.
Why can core inflation still slow down?
Both banks forecast September core CPI at 0.24% m/m, down from August's 0.29%.
The main reason: the "education and communication" component. In August, wireless-service prices spiked abnormally, adding roughly 0.1 percentage point to core CPI on its own. In plain terms = that August jump was a one-off pulse, not a trend; with it fading, the core reading naturally drops back.
Core goods prices are expected at 0.13%–0.14% m/m, with new and used car prices firming slightly — not enough to add meaningful pressure.
Which components are still propping up core inflation?
Airfares remain strong. Morgan Stanley notes August airfares were already up 23% y/y; September is forecast at +1.8% m/m. Barclays sees an even steeper +2.6% m/m.
This reflects deep fuel-cost pass-through — jet fuel prices are up nearly 90% y/y, and fuel accounts for roughly 20%–30% of airline operating costs. In plain terms = airlines have almost fully passed fuel inflation on to passengers.
Medical services are forecast to rebound 0.55% m/m in September after weakening in August. Auto insurance is the drag — Morgan Stanley projects premiums falling 0.20% m/m and expects the decline to persist through 2027.
What is shelter — the heaviest weight — doing?
Shelter remains steady. Barclays forecasts September owners' equivalent rent (OER — a measure of the implied rental cost of owner-occupied housing) at +0.24% m/m and primary rent at +0.23% m/m.
Morgan Stanley's estimates are close: +0.25% and +0.20%, respectively.
This means → shelter inflation is neither accelerating nor cooling notably, making its net effect on core CPI roughly neutral.
What does the Fed's preferred PCE gauge show?
Barclays forecasts September core PCE — the inflation measure the Fed watches most closely — at 0.22% m/m, roughly 3.0% y/y. Morgan Stanley is a touch higher at 0.23% m/m.
Barclays flags uncertainty around financial-services PCE prices: the Bureau of Economic Analysis is using a new method to estimate portfolio-management service prices, and the data it needs may not be available in time.
In plain terms = the PCE number itself may carry extra fuzziness from the methodology change — when it drops, look at the line items, not just the headline.
Will the Fed hike in October?
Almost certainly not. Barclays' base case: hold in October, hike 25 bp in December.
The September FOMC minutes show "most" officials expect one more hike this year but signaled no rush in October. Fed Governor Waller stated explicitly that rate increases need not occur at consecutive meetings — officials can wait for data.
Goldman Sachs sees a December hike as the likelier outcome but notes the probability that the FOMC ultimately judges no further tightening is needed is also quite significant. This means → the real suspense is not October; it is whether the December hike actually lands.
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