U.S. September PMI Surges Beyond Expectations, Price Pressures Hit Highest Since Late 2022
nashnova research
The U.S. September composite PMI surged to 58.4, a high not seen since July 2021, pointing to Q3 GDP growth of 4%–5% annualized. But economy-wide input prices posted their sharpest monthly jump since 2020, signaling that growth and inflation are accelerating in tandem — squeezing profit margins from both sides.
How hot is the economy right now?
The S&P Global flash composite output PMI hit 58.4 in September, far above expectations and the highest since July 2021.
J.P. Morgan noted the reading is consistent with roughly 5% annualized GDP growth, implying Q3 GDP of about 4% — above its recently upgraded 3.5% forecast.
S&P Global added that, excluding the post-lockdown demand surge, this is the strongest business-activity improvement since early 2015.
How did services and manufacturing each perform?
Services PMI came in at 58.7, well above the 56.0 consensus and the prior 56.5, hitting a high not seen since March 2022. New business rose 3.0 points to 58.3, especially strong.
Manufacturing PMI printed 57.0, smashing the 53.5 consensus and the prior 53.9, the highest since May 2022. Output jumped 3.6 points to 56.7; new orders rose 3.0 points to 57.3.
This means → the expansion is not driven by a single sector. Services and manufacturing are both beating expectations by wide margins, broadening the growth base.
How serious is the price pressure?
Economy-wide input prices — what firms pay for supplies — posted the largest single-month jump since 2020, accelerating to the highest level since late 2022.
Breaking it down: services input prices surged 7.2 points to 66.1, a high since November 2022. Manufacturing input prices rebounded 3.0 points to 68.1 after three straight months of declines.
The main drivers are rising energy prices pushing up fuel and transport costs, plus intensifying wage pressure. Manufacturers specifically cited high raw-material costs and supply shortages.
Can firms pass these costs on to customers?
Not fully. Output prices — what firms charge — are rising too, but far less than input costs: services output prices rose just 1.2 points to 57.0; manufacturing output prices edged down 0.2 points to 59.2.
In plain terms = buying is getting more expensive, but selling prices can't keep up — profit margins are being squeezed in real terms.
J.P. Morgan explicitly flagged this asymmetry between input costs and output prices as the most important risk signal in the data.
Can supply chains and the labor market keep up?
Backlogs grew at the fastest pace since May 2022. Supplier delivery times lengthened by the widest margin since mid-2022.
S&P Global noted that, excluding the pandemic period, the supply-chain bottlenecks accompanying this growth are the worst in the survey's nearly twenty-year history.
Hiring is hot too: the all-industry employment index hit its highest since June 2022. Yet firms report it is increasingly difficult to find suitable workers — strong demand and recruitment struggles are running side by side.
Is this growth number as strong as it looks?
Goldman Sachs warned that some business surveys may carry a "nominal bias" — respondents measure shipments and orders in dollar terms, not real volumes, so price increases may distort the readings.
In plain terms = if a company ships the same number of units but each unit costs more, a dollar-based survey will register "growth" that overstates the real picture.
This reflects a core tension: the headline growth numbers are impressive, but surging costs and compressed margins will be the key variables markets must confront in the months ahead.
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