UBS Raises Full-Year Hong Kong IPO Fundraising Forecast to HK$450 Billion
nashnova research
UBS has raised the upper end of its full-year Hong Kong IPO forecast from HK$400 billion to HK$450 billion; the first three quarters already logged HK$387.3 billion, putting the market on track for a record year — driven by AI momentum and rising interest from international companies.
Why is UBS raising its forecast now?
Li Zhenguo, UBS co-head of Asian corporate clients, said the forecast range has moved from HK$350–400 billion in May to HK$400–450 billion now.
The upper bound jumped HK$50 billion in one move, underpinned by persistently strong market liquidity.
This means → UBS sees the liquidity as structural, not a short-term pulse — enough to carry through year-end.
How strong are the first three quarters?
Hong Kong recorded 117 new listings in the first three quarters, raising at least HK$387.349 billion — up 111% year-on-year.
In plain terms = before Q4 even begins, the market has already beaten last year's full-year total of HK$286.9 billion by over HK$100 billion.
If Q4 maintains the current pace, the full-year total will set an all-time record.
What role are AI and tech leaders playing?
Li noted that sustained AI-related investment over the next one to two years is the key factor supporting IPO sentiment.
He believes investors remain interested in companies with strong investment narratives and long-term growth potential — especially high-quality tech leaders.
This reflects a shift in Hong Kong's IPO centre of gravity from traditional sectors toward AI and tech.
How strong is international interest in listing in Hong Kong?
Indonesian gold miner Merdeka Gold (06228) listed in Hong Kong in June, with UBS as a joint sponsor.
After the deal, UBS received inquiries from international companies across industrials, consumer, and healthcare.
This means → Merdeka Gold served as a proof of concept — international firms saw a non-China company raise capital smoothly in Hong Kong and began seriously exploring the option.
Li expects the number of non-China-related listings to rise noticeably over the next year.
What could regulatory reform change?
International companies widely report that Hong Kong's connected-transaction rules are cumbersome and compliance costs are higher than rival markets.
HKEX launched a Phase 2 consultation on listing competitiveness in September; one proposal would shorten the three-year spin-off lock-up to one year.
In plain terms = once the rules loosen, AI and other fast-growing companies can carve out subsidiaries for independent fundraising far sooner — no three-year wait.
This reflects a broader dynamic: the pace of regulatory streamlining will be the key variable in converting international interest into actual deal flow.
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