US-Iran War Costs EU an Extra €100 Billion in Fuel Bills
nashnova research
EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen says the bloc has paid an extra €100 billion for fossil fuels since the US-Iran war began — with zero increase in import volumes — squeezing member states' fiscal room just as winter price pressure builds.
Where did the extra €100 billion go?
Jørgensen laid out the key figure at the Dublin energy ministers' meeting: the EU paid €100 billion more for energy this year, yet import volumes did not budge.
This means → the entire surcharge was pure price inflation, not higher consumption.
In plain terms = same gas, same oil, just far more expensive — and not a single extra molecule to show for it.
Will the US diesel export ban actually happen?
The meeting's immediate trigger was Trump's earlier threat of a diesel export ban, which pushed already-elevated refined-product prices higher still.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright later cast doubt on a full ban's feasibility; Ireland's Energy Minister Darragh O'Brien said after meeting US officials at the UN General Assembly that a 90-day ban "looks unlikely."
Jørgensen called Wright's remarks "reassuring" — yet diesel price pressure remained the central agenda item, signaling that markets are not calmed by words alone.
How are member states coping — and how far can their budgets stretch?
Spain: Madrid announced a 15% cap on regulated natural gas price increases, aimed directly at household consumers.
Italy: the Meloni government persuaded Socar (Azerbaijan's state oil company) and Kuwait Petroleum International to temporarily freeze retail pump prices; Eni, the national energy major, also imposed a domestic petrol price cap for at least one month.
But Italy has already spent roughly €2.8 billion this year on fuel-tax relief, leaving little fiscal room — This reflects a subsidy model hitting its ceiling, forcing the government to lean on suppliers instead.
Windfall taxes and demand management — what cards does the EU have left?
Jørgensen urged member states to introduce demand-side cuts, keep gas storage at 80% minimum, and adopt "targeted, temporary" price interventions.
He also reiterated the need to accelerate electrification — replacing "imported, polluting, expensive fossil fuels" with "homegrown energy."
Austria, Germany, Spain, and Poland have called for an EU-level windfall tax on excess energy-company profits; Italy's Deputy PM Matteo Salvini floated the same idea for the next fiscal-year budget.
The OECD, however, warns that only half of governments' fiscal interventions worldwide have been well-targeted — In plain terms = the money goes out the door, but half of it misses the people who need it most.
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