WTO Raises 2026 Global Merchandise Trade Growth Forecast to 3.9%
nashnova research
The WTO nearly doubled its 2026 goods-trade growth forecast to 3.9%, with AI-related goods driving almost half the gain — but the windfall is heavily concentrated among the top ten trading economies.
A near-doubling of the forecast — what did the WTO see?
The WTO on Thursday raised its 2026 goods-trade volume growth forecast from 1.9% to 3.9% — nearly double its March estimate.
Chief economist Robert Staiger called the resilience of goods trade "somewhat surprising" given the number of shocks.
This means → even with geopolitical friction and high energy costs, physical goods are moving far more than expected at the start of the year.
What is driving the growth? AI hardware
In H1 2026, trade in AI-enabled goods — chips, servers, networking equipment tied directly to AI — grew 67% year-on-year, accounting for 47% of the period's goods-trade value gains.
AI-enabled goods now represent 14.8% of total global goods trade, roughly double the 2016–2023 average.
In plain terms = nearly half of global goods-trade growth came from a single category — AI-related hardware — that was negligible a decade ago.
Who captures the gains? The top ten take over 80%
In 2025, the top ten trading partners controlled 85% of global AI-enabled goods exports and 80% of imports.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned: "Not everyone can access emerging opportunities such as AI."
This reflects a sharp concentration of AI trade gains — the largest economies are both sellers and buyers, leaving smaller economies largely shut out.
Why was the services-trade forecast cut instead?
The WTO lowered its 2026 services-trade growth forecast from 4.8% to 3.3%, the opposite direction from goods.
The drivers: Middle East conflict disrupting fuel and fertilizer flows, and high energy prices weighing on tourism.
This means → goods trade is accelerating on AI momentum while services trade is dragged down by geopolitical conflict — two lines moving in opposite directions.
Is the trade "bipolarization" risk fading?
The WTO report said bloc-based trade fragmentation triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has eased — "divergence between geopolitical blocs is no longer widening."
In plain terms = markets had feared global trade would split into two rival camps; that trend has slowed, but it has not reversed.
Looking to 2027, the WTO projects goods-trade growth at 4.1%, services at 6.4%, and total trade volume growth at 4.7% — up from 3.7% in 2026.
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