Macroeconomics · Global markets · Asset allocation
Explore rates, currencies, commodities, stocks and bonds through macro structure, capital flows and transmission channels, with observable variables and conditions that would invalidate a thesis.
Questions to explore
- Why might long Treasury yields move differently from policy rates?
- How can cyclical drivers of gold be separated from structural change?
- How do AI capital expenditure and application cash flows connect?
Research steps
Locate the macro structure · Follow the capital · Separate earnings from discounting · Define observations and failure conditions
Macro policy · Strategic competition · Asset pricing
Connect macro policy, strategic competition and liquidity to asset-pricing scenarios, testing how the balance between security and efficiency may change.
Questions to explore
- How could changing security and efficiency priorities affect asset prices?
- How can dollar liquidity and domestic policy inform research on Hong Kong equities?
- Which opposing scenarios should a long-term gold or renminbi thesis test?
Research steps
Identify participants and constraints · Locate the changing pricing weights · Trace asset scenarios · Specify confirming and opposing evidence
Metals & commodities · Supply and demand · Cycles
Use a mining-investment and sell-side research perspective to examine supply constraints, marginal market participants and commodity cycles, then compare instruments and verification signals.
Questions to explore
- Which supply and participant signals should a study of gold prices begin with?
- Why do copper prices and mining-equity valuations require different analysis?
- When does the gold–silver ratio help, and when might it lose explanatory value?
Research steps
Map supply and demand · Identify the marginal participant · Separate cycle from structure · Compare instruments and signals
US equities · Business quality · Valuation
Start with business quality, pricing power and earnings, then examine valuation assumptions, time horizons and the evidence that could invalidate an investment thesis.
Questions to explore
- How can an earnings-driven rally be distinguished from narrative or multiple expansion?
- What evidence establishes a company's pricing power?
- How do research effort and risk exposure differ between stocks and funds?
Research steps
Assess the business first · Inspect the earnings · Translate price into assumptions · Test the horizon and failure conditions
US Fundamentals · Contrarian Investing
A Burry-style contrarian framework grounded in filings, earnings quality, valuation, and the business cycle. It builds both the long and short case—and shows what would invalidate each one.
Questions to ask
- How strong is this company's underlying earnings power?
- Does the market narrative match the financial data?
- What is the strongest short thesis—and what would invalidate it?
What you'll get
Earnings-quality analysis · implied valuation assumptions · short thesis · risk triggers
Ask Burry →
AI Infrastructure · Supply Chain Bottlenecks
Looks beyond the obvious AI leaders to find the scarce components, capacity constraints, and infrastructure bottlenecks that could matter next.
Questions to ask
- Where is the next bottleneck in the AI hardware supply chain?
- How tight are GPUs, HBM, and advanced-packaging capacity?
- Where are we in the cloud Capex cycle?
What you'll get
Supply-chain bottlenecks · beneficiary lists · capex tracking · signals that would change the view
Ask Citrini →
Supply Chain Signals · Public Research Framework
Reconstructs Serenity's public research framework to find critical supply-chain bottlenecks and separate credible signals from market hype.
Questions to ask
- Which link is this supply chain stuck on?
- Which company controls the hardest-to-replace link?
- Which public posts on X contain useful supply-chain signals?
What you'll get
Public-source research · critical-node analysis · signal-versus-noise breakdown
Ask Serenity →
Market Cycles · Risk Appetite
Uses a memo-style framework to assess where markets sit in the cycle, how risk appetite is changing, and whether conditions favor offense or defense.
Questions to ask
- Where are we in the market cycle right now?
- Should we be playing offense or defense?
- Is risk appetite starting to turn?
What you'll get
Cycle assessment · offense/defense framework · risk-appetite signals
Ask Howard Marks →
Business Quality · Long-Term Investing
Applies the principles found in shareholder letters, annual-meeting Q&As, and classic speeches to business quality, moats, management, and margin of safety.
Questions to ask
- Is this company's moat real?
- Is management worth trusting for the long haul?
- Does today's price leave a margin of safety?
What you'll get
Business-quality assessment · moat analysis · margin-of-safety framework
Ask Buffett →
AGI Timelines · Compute Bottlenecks
Starts with AGI timelines, then maps the constraints across compute, power, chips, and data centers—along with who may benefit and what would weaken the thesis.
Questions to ask
- What do AGI timelines mean for compute demand?
- Which constraint binds first: power, chips, or data-center capacity?
- What would weaken the AI infrastructure thesis?
What you'll get
AGI scenarios · compute constraints · infrastructure value chains · thesis-breakers
Ask Leopold →
Portfolio Allocation · Individual Investors
Built for individual investors who want a clearer way to diversify globally, compare similar funds, and plan entries, contributions, and exits.
Questions to ask
- How should I diversify my money globally?
- Which fund should I pick among the lookalikes?
- Is now the time to buy, dollar-cost average, or take profits?
What you'll get
Allocation options · fund screening · valuation ranges · entry and exit plans
Ask Lazy Cat →
Owner's Perspective · Long-Term Investing
Looks at investing through an operator's eyes: Is this a good business? Can management be trusted? Could today's price still look attractive ten years from now?
Questions to ask
- Is this a good business over the long run?
- Can the founder and management be trusted?
- Ten years from now, will this price look like a bargain?
What you'll get
Business-model assessment · management analysis · conditions for a long-term hold
Ask Yongping Duan →
Applies GMF Research's public framework to U.S., European, and Japanese fundamentals, global liquidity, rates, credit, and FX.
Questions to ask
- Is dollar liquidity loose or tight right now?
- What are the Fed and bank balance sheets telling us?
- Rates, credit, FX — which moves first?
What you'll get
Liquidity mechanics · rates, credit, and FX signals · risk transmission paths
Ask GMF Research →
Macro Trading · Rates & FX
Applies a macro trader's framework to rates, FX, positioning, and risk—turning a broad narrative into observable anchors and scenarios.
Questions to ask
- What's anchoring rates and FX trades right now?
- How does a macro narrative translate into position sizing and stops?
- Which variable is most likely to break this trade?
What you'll get
Trading frameworks · key anchors to watch · positioning and risk scenarios
Ask Jun Yuan →
Market news · Emerging signals
Filter the news for meaningful developments and emerging signals. Understand why a change matters and what evidence to watch next, with less scrolling.
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Earnings expectations · Results
Map expectations before earnings and check them against results afterward. Unpack the gaps between reported performance, guidance and price reactions to see what the market is weighing.
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Research reports · Consensus & debate
Find reports worth reading, translate the key ideas into plain language and compare consensus with disagreement across institutions, with sources and dates to follow up.
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X perspectives · Market conversation
Follow notable accounts and topics on X, pick out perspectives worth reading and explain their market relevance, turning a busy feed into research leads.
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AI hardware · Supply-chain tracking
Track the AI hardware supply chain through a reusable framework: trace how events transmit, locate a technology's adoption phase and separate industry signals from market noise.
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Memory industry · Price tracking
Follow memory prices and trends in an updating dashboard. See what changed since the last reading and why, with data sources and update times for verification.
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Podcasts & videos · Market perspectives
Discover podcasts, videos and interviews that add a useful perspective. Know why each is worth your time and what you can take away, with original sources to explore.
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Global markets · What changed
Follow developments across global stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities. Connect events with their drivers to understand what happened, why it changed and what to watch next.
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